What is Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $66.84 per share. The share price was $53.38 on September 25, 2026, 20% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $44.59 | -16% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $66.84 | +25% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $111.20 | +108% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $83.68 | $88.87 | $95.22 | $103.15 | $113.35 |
| 8.0% | $71.08 | $74.44 | $78.42 | $83.20 | $89.03 |
| 9.0% | $61.89 | $64.19 | $66.84 | $69.94 | $73.61 |
| 10.0% | $54.90 | $56.54 | $58.39 | $60.51 | $62.96 |
| 11.0% | $49.42 | $50.62 | $51.96 | $53.47 | $55.18 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions