What is Allegion plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Allegion plc's reported free cash flow gives $158.84 per share. The share price was $189.49 on November 10, 2026, 19% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $91.78 | -52% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $158.84 | -16% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $292.52 | +54% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $208.98 | $224.36 | $243.17 | $266.68 | $296.91 |
| 8.0% | $171.50 | $181.48 | $193.27 | $207.42 | $224.72 |
| 9.0% | $144.14 | $150.96 | $158.84 | $168.02 | $178.88 |
| 10.0% | $123.32 | $128.17 | $133.67 | $139.96 | $147.21 |
| 11.0% | $106.97 | $110.53 | $114.51 | $118.98 | $124.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Allegion plc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions