What is Allegion plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Allegion plc's reported free cash flow gives $158.07 per share. The share price was $154.47 on September 25, 2026, 2% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $91.01 | -41% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $158.07 | +2% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $291.75 | +89% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $208.21 | $223.60 | $242.40 | $265.92 | $296.14 |
| 8.0% | $170.73 | $180.71 | $192.50 | $206.65 | $223.95 |
| 9.0% | $143.37 | $150.19 | $158.07 | $167.25 | $178.11 |
| 10.0% | $122.55 | $127.41 | $132.91 | $139.19 | $146.44 |
| 11.0% | $106.20 | $109.76 | $113.74 | $118.21 | $123.28 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Allegion plc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions