What is Allstate Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Allstate Corp's reported free cash flow gives $888.63 per share. The share price was $255.72 on November 10, 2026, 71% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0% | 10.0% | $533.48 | +109% |
| Base | 10.0% | 9.0% | $888.63 | +248% |
| Bull | 15.0% | 8.0% | $1,551.07 | +507% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,150.45 | $1,231.19 | $1,329.87 | $1,453.21 | $1,611.80 |
| 8.0% | $954.46 | $1,006.81 | $1,068.69 | $1,142.94 | $1,233.69 |
| 9.0% | $811.53 | $847.33 | $888.63 | $936.82 | $993.77 |
| 10.0% | $702.89 | $728.34 | $757.19 | $790.17 | $828.21 |
| 11.0% | $617.65 | $636.32 | $657.18 | $680.64 | $707.24 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Allstate Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions