What is Allstate Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Allstate Corp's reported free cash flow gives $889.73 per share. The share price was $227.60 on September 25, 2026, 74% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0% | 10.0% | $534.58 | +135% |
| Base | 10.0% | 9.0% | $889.73 | +291% |
| Bull | 15.0% | 8.0% | $1,552.17 | +582% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,151.55 | $1,232.29 | $1,330.96 | $1,454.31 | $1,612.90 |
| 8.0% | $955.55 | $1,007.91 | $1,069.79 | $1,144.04 | $1,234.79 |
| 9.0% | $812.63 | $848.42 | $889.73 | $937.92 | $994.87 |
| 10.0% | $703.98 | $729.44 | $758.29 | $791.26 | $829.31 |
| 11.0% | $618.75 | $637.41 | $658.27 | $681.74 | $708.33 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Allstate Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions