What is Alkermes plc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alkermes plc.'s reported free cash flow gives $54.28 per share. The share price was $40.85 on September 25, 2026, 25% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $31.61 | -23% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $54.28 | +33% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $99.48 | +144% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $71.13 | $76.29 | $82.59 | $90.47 | $100.60 |
| 8.0% | $58.54 | $61.89 | $65.84 | $70.59 | $76.38 |
| 9.0% | $49.35 | $51.64 | $54.28 | $57.36 | $61.00 |
| 10.0% | $42.36 | $43.98 | $45.83 | $47.93 | $50.36 |
| 11.0% | $36.86 | $38.05 | $39.38 | $40.88 | $42.58 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alkermes plc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions