What is Alkermes plc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alkermes plc.'s reported free cash flow gives $55.07 per share. The share price was $46.12 on November 10, 2026, 16% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $32.40 | -30% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $55.07 | +19% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $100.27 | +117% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $71.92 | $77.08 | $83.38 | $91.26 | $101.39 |
| 8.0% | $59.33 | $62.68 | $66.63 | $71.37 | $77.17 |
| 9.0% | $50.14 | $52.43 | $55.07 | $58.15 | $61.78 |
| 10.0% | $43.14 | $44.77 | $46.61 | $48.72 | $51.15 |
| 11.0% | $37.65 | $38.84 | $40.17 | $41.67 | $43.37 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alkermes plc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions