What is Alignment Healthcare, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alignment Healthcare, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $20.92 per share. The share price was $7.67 on November 10, 2026, 63% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $13.51 | +76% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $20.92 | +173% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $34.71 | +353% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $26.52 | $28.27 | $30.41 | $33.08 | $36.52 |
| 8.0% | $22.31 | $23.45 | $24.79 | $26.39 | $28.36 |
| 9.0% | $19.25 | $20.02 | $20.92 | $21.96 | $23.19 |
| 10.0% | $16.92 | $17.47 | $18.10 | $18.81 | $19.64 |
| 11.0% | $15.10 | $15.51 | $15.96 | $16.47 | $17.04 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alignment Healthcare, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (42.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions