What is Alignment Healthcare, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alignment Healthcare, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $20.75 per share. The share price was $8.21 on September 25, 2026, 60% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $13.34 | +62% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $20.75 | +153% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $34.54 | +321% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $26.35 | $28.10 | $30.24 | $32.91 | $36.35 |
| 8.0% | $22.14 | $23.27 | $24.62 | $26.22 | $28.19 |
| 9.0% | $19.07 | $19.85 | $20.75 | $21.79 | $23.02 |
| 10.0% | $16.75 | $17.30 | $17.93 | $18.64 | $19.47 |
| 11.0% | $14.93 | $15.34 | $15.79 | $16.30 | $16.87 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alignment Healthcare, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (42.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions