What is Allegiant Travel CO worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Allegiant Travel CO's reported free cash flow gives -$6.50 per share. The share price was $94.69 on November 10, 2026, 1,558% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | -$60.44 | -164% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | -$6.50 | -107% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $93.95 | -1% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $34.35 | $47.08 | $62.65 | $82.10 | $107.12 |
| 8.0% | $3.67 | $11.92 | $21.68 | $33.40 | $47.71 |
| 9.0% | -$18.66 | -$13.01 | -$6.50 | $1.11 | $10.09 |
| 10.0% | -$35.58 | -$31.57 | -$27.02 | -$21.82 | -$15.82 |
| 11.0% | -$48.83 | -$45.88 | -$42.59 | -$38.89 | -$34.70 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Allegiant Travel CO's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (21.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions