What is Align Technology Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Align Technology Inc's reported free cash flow gives $186.44 per share. The share price was $174.26 on November 10, 2026, 7% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $121.76 | -30% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $186.44 | +7% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $315.36 | +81% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $235.37 | $250.46 | $268.91 | $291.96 | $321.61 |
| 8.0% | $198.73 | $208.52 | $220.09 | $233.97 | $250.93 |
| 9.0% | $172.02 | $178.71 | $186.44 | $195.44 | $206.09 |
| 10.0% | $151.72 | $156.48 | $161.87 | $168.03 | $175.15 |
| 11.0% | $135.79 | $139.28 | $143.18 | $147.57 | $152.54 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Align Technology Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions