What is Alamo Group Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alamo Group Inc's reported free cash flow gives $242.79 per share. The share price was $139.73 on November 10, 2026, 42% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $151.71 | +9% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $242.79 | +74% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $424.40 | +204% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $310.07 | $330.61 | $355.72 | $387.10 | $427.45 |
| 8.0% | $259.86 | $273.18 | $288.93 | $307.82 | $330.91 |
| 9.0% | $223.17 | $232.28 | $242.79 | $255.05 | $269.54 |
| 10.0% | $195.23 | $201.70 | $209.04 | $217.43 | $227.11 |
| 11.0% | $173.25 | $178.00 | $183.30 | $189.27 | $196.04 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alamo Group Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions