What is Alamo Group Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alamo Group Inc's reported free cash flow gives $237.32 per share. The share price was $159.45 on September 25, 2026, 33% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $146.24 | -8% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $237.32 | +49% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $418.93 | +163% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $304.60 | $325.14 | $350.25 | $381.63 | $421.98 |
| 8.0% | $254.39 | $267.71 | $283.46 | $302.35 | $325.44 |
| 9.0% | $217.70 | $226.81 | $237.32 | $249.58 | $264.07 |
| 10.0% | $189.75 | $196.23 | $203.57 | $211.96 | $221.64 |
| 11.0% | $167.78 | $172.52 | $177.83 | $183.80 | $190.57 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alamo Group Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions