What is Astera Labs, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Astera Labs, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $53.01 per share. The share price was $213.08 on November 10, 2026, 302% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $32.67 | -85% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $53.01 | -75% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $90.90 | -57% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $68.42 | $73.22 | $79.09 | $86.43 | $95.86 |
| 8.0% | $56.85 | $59.96 | $63.64 | $68.06 | $73.46 |
| 9.0% | $48.43 | $50.56 | $53.01 | $55.88 | $59.27 |
| 10.0% | $42.04 | $43.56 | $45.27 | $47.24 | $49.50 |
| 11.0% | $37.05 | $38.16 | $39.40 | $40.79 | $42.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Astera Labs, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (120.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions