What is Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $3.15 per share. The share price was $0.90 on September 25, 2026, 72% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -9.5% | 10.0% | $2.17 | +142% |
| Base | -4.5% | 9.0% | $3.15 | +252% |
| Bull | 0.5% | 8.0% | $5.10 | +469% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $3.82 | $4.02 | $4.26 | $4.56 | $4.94 |
| 8.0% | $3.33 | $3.45 | $3.61 | $3.79 | $4.01 |
| 9.0% | $2.96 | $3.05 | $3.15 | $3.27 | $3.41 |
| 10.0% | $2.69 | $2.75 | $2.82 | $2.90 | $2.99 |
| 11.0% | $2.46 | $2.51 | $2.56 | $2.62 | $2.68 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-4.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions