What is Aar Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Aar Corp's reported free cash flow gives $32.34 per share. The share price was $116.11 on September 25, 2026, 259% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $11.37 | -90% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $32.34 | -72% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $71.38 | -39% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $48.21 | $53.16 | $59.21 | $66.77 | $76.50 |
| 8.0% | $36.29 | $39.50 | $43.29 | $47.84 | $53.41 |
| 9.0% | $27.61 | $29.81 | $32.34 | $35.29 | $38.79 |
| 10.0% | $21.03 | $22.59 | $24.36 | $26.38 | $28.72 |
| 11.0% | $15.89 | $17.03 | $18.31 | $19.75 | $21.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Aar Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions