What is AdaptHealth Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on AdaptHealth Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives $39.66 per share. The share price was $5.64 on September 25, 2026, 86% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $18.62 | +230% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $39.66 | +603% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $78.85 | +1,298% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $55.60 | $60.57 | $66.64 | $74.23 | $83.99 |
| 8.0% | $43.63 | $46.85 | $50.66 | $55.23 | $60.81 |
| 9.0% | $34.92 | $37.12 | $39.66 | $42.63 | $46.13 |
| 10.0% | $28.31 | $29.88 | $31.66 | $33.69 | $36.03 |
| 11.0% | $23.15 | $24.30 | $25.58 | $27.02 | $28.66 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at AdaptHealth Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (25.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions