What is Agco Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Agco Corp's reported free cash flow gives $123.99 per share. The share price was $113.15 on November 10, 2026, 9% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.0% | 10.0% | $65.98 | -42% |
| Base | 2.0% | 9.0% | $123.99 | +10% |
| Bull | 7.0% | 8.0% | $232.30 | +105% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $164.68 | $176.95 | $191.96 | $210.71 | $234.82 |
| 8.0% | $134.43 | $142.39 | $151.80 | $163.08 | $176.88 |
| 9.0% | $112.27 | $117.71 | $123.99 | $131.32 | $139.97 |
| 10.0% | $95.34 | $99.21 | $103.60 | $108.61 | $114.39 |
| 11.0% | $81.99 | $84.83 | $88.00 | $91.57 | $95.61 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Agco Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions