What is Agco Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Agco Corp's reported free cash flow gives $125.58 per share. The share price was $118.02 on September 25, 2026, 6% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.0% | 10.0% | $67.58 | -43% |
| Base | 2.0% | 9.0% | $125.58 | +6% |
| Bull | 7.0% | 8.0% | $233.90 | +98% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $166.27 | $178.55 | $193.55 | $212.30 | $236.41 |
| 8.0% | $136.02 | $143.98 | $153.39 | $164.68 | $178.47 |
| 9.0% | $113.86 | $119.30 | $125.58 | $132.91 | $141.57 |
| 10.0% | $96.93 | $100.80 | $105.19 | $110.20 | $115.99 |
| 11.0% | $83.58 | $86.42 | $89.59 | $93.16 | $97.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Agco Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions