What is Advantage Solutions Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Advantage Solutions Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$1.78 per share. The share price was $32.29 on November 10, 2026, 1,910% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | -$2.80 | -109% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | -$1.78 | -106% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $0.19 | -99% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$1.07 | -$0.86 | -$0.60 | -$0.27 | $0.15 |
| 8.0% | -$1.60 | -$1.46 | -$1.30 | -$1.10 | -$0.86 |
| 9.0% | -$1.99 | -$1.89 | -$1.78 | -$1.66 | -$1.50 |
| 10.0% | -$2.29 | -$2.22 | -$2.14 | -$2.05 | -$1.95 |
| 11.0% | -$2.52 | -$2.47 | -$2.41 | -$2.35 | -$2.28 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Advantage Solutions Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions