What is Analog Devices Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Analog Devices Inc's reported free cash flow gives $262.20 per share. The share price was $393.60 on September 25, 2026, 50% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.5% | 10.0% | $157.43 | -60% |
| Base | 14.5% | 9.0% | $262.20 | -33% |
| Bull | 19.5% | 8.0% | $470.83 | +20% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $343.20 | $368.41 | $399.22 | $437.74 | $487.25 |
| 8.0% | $282.39 | $298.73 | $318.05 | $341.24 | $369.58 |
| 9.0% | $238.12 | $249.30 | $262.20 | $277.24 | $295.03 |
| 10.0% | $204.54 | $212.49 | $221.50 | $231.80 | $243.68 |
| 11.0% | $178.26 | $184.09 | $190.60 | $197.93 | $206.23 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Analog Devices Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions