What is Adobe Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Adobe Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $678.19 per share. The share price was $235.47 on September 25, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $412.70 | +75% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $678.19 | +188% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $1,172.93 | +398% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $877.14 | $938.92 | $1,014.41 | $1,108.79 | $1,230.13 |
| 8.0% | $727.89 | $767.95 | $815.29 | $872.10 | $941.54 |
| 9.0% | $619.20 | $646.59 | $678.19 | $715.06 | $758.64 |
| 10.0% | $536.71 | $556.19 | $578.26 | $603.49 | $632.60 |
| 11.0% | $472.10 | $486.38 | $502.34 | $520.29 | $540.64 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Adobe Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions