What is Aecom worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Aecom's reported free cash flow gives $76.26 per share. The share price was $60.89 on September 25, 2026, 20% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $42.23 | -31% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $76.26 | +25% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $139.80 | +130% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $100.45 | $107.79 | $116.77 | $127.99 | $142.41 |
| 8.0% | $82.43 | $87.19 | $92.82 | $99.57 | $107.83 |
| 9.0% | $69.25 | $72.50 | $76.26 | $80.64 | $85.82 |
| 10.0% | $59.19 | $61.51 | $64.13 | $67.13 | $70.59 |
| 11.0% | $51.27 | $52.97 | $54.86 | $57.00 | $59.42 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Aecom's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions