What is Axcelis Technologies Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Axcelis Technologies Inc's reported free cash flow gives $98.32 per share. The share price was $106.79 on November 10, 2026, 9% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $63.27 | -41% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $98.32 | -8% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $168.14 | +57% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $125.03 | $133.29 | $143.38 | $156.00 | $172.23 |
| 8.0% | $105.01 | $110.37 | $116.70 | $124.30 | $133.58 |
| 9.0% | $90.43 | $94.09 | $98.32 | $103.25 | $109.07 |
| 10.0% | $79.35 | $81.95 | $84.90 | $88.28 | $92.17 |
| 11.0% | $70.66 | $72.57 | $74.70 | $77.10 | $79.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Axcelis Technologies Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions