What is Axcelis Technologies Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Axcelis Technologies Inc's reported free cash flow gives $97.19 per share. The share price was $123.11 on September 25, 2026, 27% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $62.14 | -50% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $97.19 | -21% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $167.01 | +36% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $123.90 | $132.16 | $142.25 | $154.87 | $171.10 |
| 8.0% | $103.88 | $109.24 | $115.57 | $123.17 | $132.45 |
| 9.0% | $89.30 | $92.96 | $97.19 | $102.12 | $107.94 |
| 10.0% | $78.22 | $80.82 | $83.77 | $87.15 | $91.04 |
| 11.0% | $69.53 | $71.44 | $73.57 | $75.97 | $78.70 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Axcelis Technologies Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions