What is Arch Capital Group Ltd. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s reported free cash flow gives $541.68 per share. The share price was $109.14 on November 10, 2026, 80% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $330.33 | +203% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $541.68 | +396% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $935.22 | +757% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $701.70 | $751.59 | $812.57 | $888.80 | $986.81 |
| 8.0% | $581.49 | $613.85 | $652.08 | $697.97 | $754.06 |
| 9.0% | $494.03 | $516.15 | $541.68 | $571.46 | $606.65 |
| 10.0% | $427.71 | $443.44 | $461.27 | $481.65 | $505.16 |
| 11.0% | $375.82 | $387.35 | $400.24 | $414.75 | $431.18 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (18.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions