What is Arcosa, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Arcosa, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $59.93 per share. The share price was $146.62 on September 25, 2026, 145% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $29.60 | -80% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $59.93 | -59% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $120.40 | -18% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $82.61 | $89.57 | $98.08 | $108.72 | $122.39 |
| 8.0% | $65.66 | $70.17 | $75.51 | $81.91 | $89.74 |
| 9.0% | $53.28 | $56.37 | $59.93 | $64.09 | $69.00 |
| 10.0% | $43.87 | $46.06 | $48.55 | $51.39 | $54.67 |
| 11.0% | $36.47 | $38.08 | $39.88 | $41.90 | $44.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Arcosa, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions